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slpdesign99 Newcomer Location: Geelong Australia Registered: January 2004	SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005 Mon, 19 January 2004 22:44 This was sent to me By Geoff from Prestiage Motorsport. [url=http://www.prestigemotorsport.com.au] Here is some SERIOUS NEWS for anyone planning to import a 15 year old vehicle, which will put all recent rumours to rest. DOTARS are planning to change the 15 year rule as of 1 January 2005. A "Regulation Impact Statement" is being prepared for consideration, which is part of the process followed by the Government prior to changing a regulation. They are currently seeking comments from a range of stakeholders on their proposed changes to the 15 year rule for importing vehicles to Australia. The following three options are being considered: Option 1 -- Make no changes to the current arrangements, ie. continue to allow unrestricted importation of vehicles 15 or more years old. Option 2 -- From 1 January 2005, allow only vehicles manufactured prior to 1 January 1989, to be imported without restriction, ie. no more 1989+ models. Option 3 -- From 1 January 2005, allow only vehicles 30 or more years old to be imported without restriction, ie. a 30 year rule. Grounds for the change In broad terms, DOTARS are citing the following two reasons for the proposed change: 1) NUMBERS -- The trends in importing 15 years or older vehicles (in particular 2003 saw more than double the number imported in 2002), see figures below per year: 1998 3,565 vehicles 1999 3,763 2000 3,941 2001 3,848 2002 5,703 2003 12,291 Hence the concern. DOTARS have stated that left unchecked, these numbers are very likely to exceed the number of vehicles being imported under SEVS. This is obviously the driving force for changing the regulation. 2) EMISSIONS, PERFORMANCE and SAFETY -- 15 years and older vehicles are not required to meet current emissions and safety requirements. Whether valid or not, DOTARS are arguing that allowing the continued import of older vehicles under current arrangements will be detrimental to the average age as well as emissions and safety standards of the Australian vehicle fleet. On the surface this appears a valid argument, however if unable to import, in reality the people intending to import these vehicles would simply spend their budget on local alternatives. On the whole these local vehicles in the same price range are less safe and efficient than the import alternative, simply based on the types of imports targetted (prestige and performance cars) versus what is available locally for the same price (generally old fuel guzzling and rusty clunkers). We all know the types of cars that can be accessed from Japan and what great value they represent. Almost all are fuel injected and many are prestige vehicles worth more than $100,000 when sold new. After all, if local vehicles were as good for the same money, no one would bother importing would they. Thinking logically, the only impact we can see of continued import of 15 years and older vehicles as the rule currently stands is an increased rate of depreciation for local vehicles in the same price range as the imported vehicles, ie. $7,000 to $15,000. Thinking further ahead, these local vehicles would then drop down into the price range of those who would otherwise not be unable to own a vehicle, or those who would otherwise only be able to afford a less safe and less efficient vehicle (students are a prime example). So overall, allowing the rule to continue unchanged should actually improve the average safety and emissions for the Aust. vehicle fleet by pushing the old clunkers out though the bottom of the market. Our opinion on what will happen We feel that nothing short of a HUGE public outcry will have any impact on the plans to change the 15 year rule. It is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that the rule will remain unchanged (Option 1) -- after all, if DOTARS thought everything was OK as it was now then they would not be embarking on this process would they. The fact is, from the DOTARS perspective they have to do something to slow the number of imports, so Option 1 is really not up for consideration at all. That leaves only Option 2 and Option 3 to choose from. While going to a 30 year old rule would be an attractive and immediately satisfying outcome for DOTARS, we suspect they will avoid the sledgehammer approach and will prefer Option 2, which limits import to vehicles made earlier than 1 January 1989. This will have the effect of reducing numbers over time as vehicles of this age become harder to find, and will cushion the impact on Australian businesses that rely solely on 15 year old vehicles. Therefore, the outcry from the public and from the industry will be softened to a point where there will be no solid opposition. Most importantly for DOTARS, this approach would also stop the import of all the new and attractive 1989 models after allowing only a small taste of them in 2004. When should I buy a 1989 model ? The short and obvious answer is AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, before the rule changes and / or an announcement is made. The proposed 1 January 2005 change sets the timeframe. Working back from that, DOTARS need to announce the change they decide to adopt with enough time to allow a transitional phase so that no one is seriously caught out (like their last announcement on 2nd September). This period is likely to be 3 to 6 months, so between mid 2004 and Jan 2005. The DOTARS process of considering the changes, deciding, then passing them may take them several months. At this time they are likely to make an announcement of the change to the regulation. We would expect something to be announced perhaps by the middle of this year, possibly earlier if they can manage it. How they will phrase the announcement we do not know, however we suspect that they will lean towards doing their best to limit the number of vehicles being bought before the regulation changes on 1 January 2005. DOTARS have clearly recognized that all the new 1989 model shapes represent the biggest threat to import numbers. Even if Option 2 is chosen, they are likely to put a stop to the import of any 1989 model vehicles from the date of the announcement just like their recent announcement. Proof of purchase (funds transfer receipt) prior to the announcement date would probably be required for an exemption where the vehicle was only eligible for import late in 2004. So as we see it, the next 3 to 6 months should be viewed as your LAST CHANCE if you wish to guarantee the import of a 1989 model under the 15 year rule. Based on the above reasoning, we recommend that customers who want to import a 1989 model under the 15 year rule should GET IN AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. Just as those who bought 1989 models prior to 2nd Sept. 2003 were rewarded by being allowed to import their vehicles in Jan 2004, it is natural to assume that those who buy now will also be rewarded for their forward planning when the rule changes this year. It is much better to buy now and factor in up to 11 months storage for a vehicle in Japan prior to shipping, than to miss out altogether. Bear in mind that many 1989 models are not eligible for import under SEVS. So after the rule changes you will be unable to import them AT ALL. Examples are the MX-5, MR-2, Celsior, 300ZX 2+2, Porsche, Corvette, Galant, Supra (MA70 / GA70), Legacy, RX-7 (S4 / S5) etc., basically all the good options and you can certainly kiss cheap R32 GTR's goodbye with your alternative under SEVS being $5,500 plus tyres for compliance. These models are set to disappear from our import menu for good with the proposed changes. Payment for 1989 Models to be imported in 2004 Note that only the FOB cost of the vehicle and our service fee need to be paid to commence the process, then the remainder (shipping, import duties, GST etc.) once the vehicle arrives in Australia. This means that you can secure 1989 models in advance with a payment of usually between 40% to 50% of the total vehicle cost, with the remainder not due until after arrival. Have your say We would encourage anyone that has an interest in this issue to have their say now while they still have an opportunity. It would be a very optimistic person to see any outcome other than either Option 2 or 3 being chosen, neither of which will all leave the new 1989+ models that we are now looking forward to, available for import. So don't save your opinions until after it's too late to have an impact and the 1989+ models are out of reach -- get organised now, mount a solid case and sound arguments for keeping the rule as it is and get these in to DOTARS on the proper form (see below). We would strongly suggest that all comments be restricted to rational arguments based on the options proposed and the reasoning behind them. This is the only response that will help the cause. In particular, mad raving about how it just shouldn't happen and how good things are now without any valid reasons is likely to have a negative impact rather than a positive one, and will divert attention away from the very valid arguments that should be mounted against the proposed changes. In addition to well reasoned arguments for Option 1, it would be worth focussing on options that you believe would be better than those proposed by DOTARS, but bear in mind that these would have to have some significant advantages for DOTARS over the current options that have been put forward to even receive cursory consideration, ie. ease, cost, political advantages. Who to Contact Ross Docherty Vehicle Safety Standards Department of Transport and Regional Services GPO Box 594 Canberra ACT 2601 Fax: (02) 6274 7714 E-mail: ross.docherty@dotars.gov.au [Report message to a moderator]

	Subject	Poster	Date
	SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	slpdesign99	Mon, 19 January 2004 22:44
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Caledwvech	Mon, 19 January 2004 23:12
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	slpdesign99	Mon, 19 January 2004 23:22
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	RobST162	Mon, 19 January 2004 23:46
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	slpdesign99	Tue, 20 January 2004 00:06
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	RobST162	Tue, 20 January 2004 00:10
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	slpdesign99	Tue, 20 January 2004 00:32
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	RobST162	Tue, 20 January 2004 00:32
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	slpdesign99	Fri, 23 January 2004 04:09
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	chrisss	Fri, 23 January 2004 07:43
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	RobST162	Sun, 25 January 2004 00:24
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	wraith	Fri, 30 January 2004 03:52
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Caledwvech	Mon, 19 January 2004 23:56
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	RobST162	Mon, 19 January 2004 23:58
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	wiso	Tue, 20 January 2004 00:48
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Caledwvech	Tue, 20 January 2004 00:56
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Intensevil	Tue, 20 January 2004 04:45
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	ae86drift	Tue, 20 January 2004 05:27
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	shcao	Tue, 20 January 2004 06:25
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Intensevil	Tue, 20 January 2004 09:44
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	biased99	Tue, 20 January 2004 12:56
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	4DaDrift	Tue, 20 January 2004 13:23
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	5m3ghead	Tue, 20 January 2004 22:53
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Chrisso	Wed, 21 January 2004 02:47
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Shraka	Fri, 23 January 2004 13:00
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Shraka	Fri, 30 January 2004 04:22
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Caledwvech	Fri, 30 January 2004 04:40
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Shraka	Fri, 30 January 2004 04:45
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	Jag7799	Fri, 30 January 2004 06:42
	Re: SERIOUS NEWS -- 15 Year Rule WILL CHANGE ON 1 JAN 2005	wraith	Sun, 01 February 2004 14:33

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