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mynameisrodney
Forums Junkie

Location:
Kellyville, Sydney
Registered:
June 2004

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Tue, 30 August 2005 13:30

that is utter crap. this has been proven many times now. refer to my prog if you want to check. [Report message to a moderator]

Shraka
Forums Junkie

Location:
Melbourne
Registered:
November 2003

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!

Tue, 30 August 2005 13:49

mynameisrodney wrote on Tue, 30 August 2005 23:30

that is utter crap. this has been proven many times now. refer to my prog if you want to check.

Yeah, and I just proved otherwise. Unless i've missed a step somewhere, which is possible.

[Report message to a moderator]

mynameisrodney
Forums Junkie

Location:
Kellyville, Sydney
Registered:
June 2004

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!

Tue, 30 August 2005 14:01

Quote:

choice: 0, car: 2 ... choice: 0, car: 2, new choice: 1, LOSE

in that situation the goat behind 1 will be revealed. then switching would put you in front of the car.

if your program works out the TOTAL probability of winning, then yes it is 50/50, but that is not the question.
then question asks for the probability IF YOU SWITCH.
If this was the case you were trying to solve for, then there is an error in your code somewhere.

chris

EDIT: Sorry, what is happening is that you switched to the door which was already opened by the host. eg
choice = 0
car = 2
HOST OPENS =1
then your prog switched to 1, it should have switched to 2

[Updated on: Tue, 30 August 2005 14:04]

[Report message to a moderator]

SupraPete
Forums Junkie

Location:
Sydney
Registered:
July 2002

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Tue, 30 August 2005 14:03

Shraka, post your code please. Looks like your just doing what everyone else thinks it is and resetting the values and doing a random between 2 points ie. why is the "new choice" never 2 (the third door). choice: 1, car: 2 ... choice: 1, car: 2, new choice: 0, LOSE why is the new choice 0?? Isn't that the one that the TV presenter chose as a goat door? Same with: choice: 2, car: 1 ... choice: 2, car: 1, new choice: 0, LOSE This one I don't get. the car moved? choice: 1, car: 2 ... choice: 0, car: 1, new choice: 1, WIN [Report message to a moderator]

Shraka
Forums Junkie

Location:
Melbourne
Registered:
November 2003

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Tue, 30 August 2005 14:07

Wholy crap. Okay, yes there was something wrong with my script (I had a 3 in there rather than a 2 at one point). Fixed now... and yes... it does seem that the chances are 2:1 that switching will win. eats his hat Not tasty, but I deserve it. My code actualy takes the first three doors, and removes the one that was chosen, leaving you with 2 doors. After the ... should never have anything but 0 and 1, which are the two new door choices. Yes, it remembers where the car was, and where your choice was. And it seems to work. Freaky... [Updated on: Tue, 30 August 2005 14:10] [Report message to a moderator]

Squid
Forums Junkie

Location:
Canberra
Registered:
August 2003

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!

Tue, 30 August 2005 23:45

SupraPete wrote on Tue, 30 August 2005 16:35

Maybe we should start another post of "who has the highest IQ" or "who can call someone else an idiot or moron when they're wrong". Laughing

That'll last 10 minutes till it is locked Smile

I think a few inflated egos will make a claim to both titles!!!

[Report message to a moderator]

CrUZsida
Forums Junkie

I supported Toymods

Location:
Australia
Registered:
November 2003

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Wed, 31 August 2005 01:05

Can someone explain to me why, when initial conditions change, and the decision changes (or has the potential to), that the probability is still based on previous conditions? [Report message to a moderator]

SupraPete
Forums Junkie

Location:
Sydney
Registered:
July 2002

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Wed, 31 August 2005 01:14

Your making 2 choices. If it was just 1 choice at the start it would always be 1/3 probability. If it was always 1 choice at the end it would always be 1/2 probability. If you make a SECCOND CHOICE, it ties in with the first initial probability. Stop resetting the values to 1 choice between 2. [Report message to a moderator]

CrUZsida
Forums Junkie

I supported Toymods

Location:
Australia
Registered:
November 2003

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Wed, 31 August 2005 01:19

Yeah, but the circumstances surround the 2nd choice are different to the 1st choice. What I'm saying is, in reality, there is no difference between doing it how it was done, and walking up to 2 doors and making the decision. [Report message to a moderator]

SupraPete
Forums Junkie

Location:
Sydney
Registered:
July 2002

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Wed, 31 August 2005 01:27

In reality the host is taking out one of the WRONG choices each time AFTER your first choice. If he took it out before your first choice, then absolutely 1/2. [Report message to a moderator]

CrUZsida
Forums Junkie

I supported Toymods

Location:
Australia
Registered:
November 2003

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Wed, 31 August 2005 01:45

So if you are even in this situation, you should switch? [Report message to a moderator]

SupraPete
Forums Junkie

Location:
Sydney
Registered:
July 2002

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Wed, 31 August 2005 01:47

Yes. The probability that you'll pick the right door if you switch is 2/3. Always switch. [Report message to a moderator]

SupraPete
Forums Junkie

Location:
Sydney
Registered:
July 2002

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Wed, 31 August 2005 02:03

New angle (this is why I'm not a teacher - I can't teach): Deal or no deal. 3 breif cases left. You know there is $1, $10 and $200,000 available. The smiling presenter says "don't get case1 as you don't want it". -ie. it can be either $1 or $10. The probability of case1 being $1 is 1/2. and $10 1/2. case2 $1 is 1/6, $10 is 1/6, $200,000 is 2/3. case3 $1 is 1/6, $10 is 1/6, $200,000 is 2/3. The probability of $1 being in case2 is 1/6 as it has half a chance to be in case1 so only 1/6 (1/2 of 1/3) a chance of being in case2. Replace $1 for a black goat and $10 for a white goat, and $200,000 for a car. [Report message to a moderator]

mynameisrodney
Forums Junkie

Location:
Kellyville, Sydney
Registered:
June 2004

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Wed, 31 August 2005 14:29

supraPete you have P($1 is in case 1) = 1/2 P($1 is in case 2) = 1/6 P($1 is in case 3) = 1/6 this doesnt add to 1 P($10 is in case 1) = 1/2 P($10 is in case 2) = 1/6 P($10 is in case 3) = 1/6 this doesnt add to 1 P($200k is in case 1) = 0 P($200k is in case 2) = 2/3 P($200k is in case 3) = 2/3 this doesnt add to 1 but i'll forgive you coz its late [Report message to a moderator]

SupraPete
Forums Junkie

Location:
Sydney
Registered:
July 2002

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Thu, 01 September 2005 04:40

Yeah I was trying to find another example to try and show the people that still believe its 1/2 that its really 2/3. But I failed. Ah well. I'm still right. [Report message to a moderator]

Shraka
Forums Junkie

Location:
Melbourne
Registered:
November 2003

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Thu, 01 September 2005 05:06

All you have to do is look at the code examples. I don't understand the theory, but there's the practice, right in front of you. I'm a convert. [Report message to a moderator]

poh_86
Regular

Location:
sydney, nearest store nea...
Registered:
November 2004

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Fri, 02 September 2005 09:53

its like watching a game show.. they'll show u the other door to build suspense if you create the tree diagram one diagram with the chances of LOSING IF he switched its 6/9 (2/3) and a seperate diagram if he didnt switch its still 2/3 either way its still 2 of 3 chances of getting a goat even if he switches lets say the guy thats in the game is one indecisive son of a bitch, he could sit there and still contemplate which he is gonna choose even if he switched and only by choosing after what is revealed his chances are 1/2 correct me if im wrong, if u guys really want ill pass the link to my cousin he worked doing probability for pokies, but dont trust my word.. i only did general maths (lowest form of maths in todays schools) [Report message to a moderator]

mynameisrodney
Forums Junkie

Location:
Kellyville, Sydney
Registered:
June 2004

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Fri, 02 September 2005 10:11

nope, you are wrong. odds are increased by switching. see above posts for AT LEAST 5 explanations, programs explaining why. can we swap this thread with worlds best thread? this one really needs to die, and WBT was kickass [Report message to a moderator]

CrUZsida
Forums Junkie

I supported Toymods

Location:
Australia
Registered:
November 2003

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Fri, 02 September 2005 10:15

How about it gets explained simply. You have 2 in 3 chances of getting it WRONG before the switch. So you have 2 in 3 chances of getting it RIGHT after switch. [Report message to a moderator]

trevtrev
Regular

Location:
Brisbane
Registered:
October 2004

Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!	Mon, 05 September 2005 03:14

So, There is an island with 100 lions and 1 sheep: 1: Sheep eats grass 2: Lions can survive eating grass 3: Lions Prefer to eat sheep 4: After a lion eats sheep, it becomes a sheep. 5: There is nothing a lion hates more, than being a sheep that could be eaten by another lion. So, does the Sheep get eaten? [Report message to a moderator]