| Author | Topic |
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Registered:
October 2004
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THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Sun, 28 August 2005 14:47
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I went on this bloke's blog and looked at a riddle he made,
now I'm having a major discussion with a guy that says the probability is 2/3 after monty shows you the door with the goat
APPARENTLY THE ANSWER WAS GIVEN BY A GUY WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST IQ
well... i'm bored again... hmmm... happens so often... anyways... well don't know what I'm gonna write.. so i'll just let my fingers do the walking....
;wosaeitrnhawuoethmnlahn gliajg lkajg;kaehgflnh60awot8sdkhtjbfga.sf g.......
nah that didn't work out... I think, I'll think of someTHING thoughtful to THINK of..."Riddle Time"
okay here it goes...
You're in a Game Show called the Monty Hall Show.
Monty (The Host), presents you with 3 doors...
behind one of the doors is a Car...
The other 2 doors have a Goat behind it...
Monty knows which door the Car is in...
You are givin the chance to pick 1 door and stand in front of it...
After you choose, it is Compulsory for Monty to Pick a Door with A Goat behind it, and show you the Goat...
Monty can NEVER pick the Car...
You are left with 2 doors, and 2 Choices...
1, stay with the door you have chosen, or,..
2, switch...
What should you do? Stay? or Switch? Hmmm...
What are the odds of winning if you switch? 1/3? 2/3? 1/2? 1/1?..
NOW HERE"S THE CHAT CONVO
[R a H . R a H] says:
on your blog
[R a H . R a H] says:
there's a riddle
[R a H . R a H] says:
the "prize" is the car right?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
a huh?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yup
[R a H . R a H] says:
and my options are to switch to the door monty isn't at or stay at the door i'm with right?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yup
[R a H . R a H] says:
well wouldn't it be half then?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
the odds?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
nope
[R a H . R a H] says:
why's that? lol
MUSIC = LIFE says:
well....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
at first u think...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
i hav a 1 out of 3 chance
MUSIC = LIFE says:
monty opens a door with a goat...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
then u hav a 1 out of 2 chance
MUSIC = LIFE says:
when in fact u hav a 2 out of 3 chance of winning by switching and 1 out of 3 chance by staying
MUSIC = LIFE says:
its all quite confusing...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
but test it out...
[R a H . R a H] says:
why's that? monty already eliminate a possibility?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
play the game 10 times with someone... and stay.. then do it again and switch
MUSIC = LIFE says:
u'll see a big difference
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yeah its not actually a possibility....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
u'll alway hav a door opened with a goat...
[R a H . R a H] says:
isn't it a probability? because monty shows you a goat, therefore, leaving 2 doors unknown, and those 2 doors definately have 1 goat and 1 car behind them, which then concludes that you have a probability of half?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
nope....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
trust me on this
[R a H . R a H] says:
wtf? lol
[R a H . R a H] says:
can you tell me
[R a H . R a H] says:
i'm really confused! lol
MUSIC = LIFE says:
ok....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
3 doors...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
whats the probability of getting a goat?
[R a H . R a H] says:
it's like saying, if i have 10 balls, labelled 1 to 10, i take numbers 6,7,8,9,10 away, what's the probability of me choosing the number 5?
[R a H . R a H] says:
probability of getting a goat is 2/3
MUSIC = LIFE says:
ok 2 out of 3....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
right?
[R a H . R a H] says:
yeh, but can you answer my question first? lol
MUSIC = LIFE says:
which one? u hav a lot
[R a H . R a H] says:
it's like saying, if i have 10 balls, labelled 1 to 10, i take numbers 6,7,8,9,10 away, what's the probability of me choosing the number 5?
[R a H . R a H] says:
1/5 right?
[R a H . R a H] says:
isn't that question EXACTLY like your question?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
i would say
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yeah 1 of 5
MUSIC = LIFE says:
its not...
[R a H . R a H] says:
it can't be 1/10 if i choose the number 5 because i eliminated the possibility of choosing 6,7,8,910
MUSIC = LIFE says:
bcoz monty opens another door
MUSIC = LIFE says:
honestly.. if u dont believe me.... conduct a test with someone
MUSIC = LIFE says:
10x stay
MUSIC = LIFE says:
10x switch
[R a H . R a H] says:
yeh, but that test is just luck!
MUSIC = LIFE says:
no its not...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
its probability
MUSIC = LIFE says:
doing it once... its luck... doing it 10x... its probability
[R a H . R a H] says:
yeh it's a probabilty, but you saying that if i conduct a test with someone, and i do somehow prove you right or prove you wrong, the test is just base on luck
MUSIC = LIFE says:
how is it based on luck?
[R a H . R a H] says:
okay,
[R a H . R a H] says:
tell me, if i pick up 10 people from the street and ask them if their smokers, and say 8 of them are smokers, would that conclude that 8 out of 10 people are smokers in australia?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
trust me... this riddle is a famous riddle.... the answer which i told was from the a person with the highest IQ in the world
MUSIC = LIFE says:
as a minor statistic, your answer would b correct
[R a H . R a H] says:
lol it's so dumb! i'm doing probability right now in uni, and this obviously makes no sense! because monty already eliminated a factor, which then leads either right/wrong situation!
MUSIC = LIFE says:
but i'm not talking about being random....
[R a H . R a H] says:
yes it would be "correct", but highly unaccurate
MUSIC = LIFE says:
this is a literal probability....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
to the human mind and how it works, thats how it sees the situation...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
especially if you are thinking of just ONE game...
[R a H . R a H] says:
that monty situation on leaves a right/wrong answer, OKAY, if i have 3 cards, one's a jack, queen and a king, if i flip a card and show you it's a jack, what's the probability of the other two being a king? it's half because it's either a king or a queen if you choose it!
MUSIC = LIFE says:
PLUS
MUSIC = LIFE says:
theres more to it
[R a H . R a H] says:
there's more?
[R a H . R a H] says:
what you mean?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
OMG... ur not even trying to understand it
[R a H . R a H] says:
no i am... but none of it is making sense
MUSIC = LIFE says:
stop giving other examples
[R a H . R a H] says:
don't mean to offend or anything
MUSIC = LIFE says:
and let me explain
MUSIC = LIFE says:
okay...
[R a H . R a H] says:
oh okay, sorry mate
[R a H . R a H] says:
this isn't sarah btw
MUSIC = LIFE says:
it dont matter
[R a H . R a H] says:
oh okays,
MUSIC = LIFE says:
2 of 3 chance of getting a goat right?
[R a H . R a H] says:
IF monty does not reveal
MUSIC = LIFE says:
so if he reveals?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
since he ALWAYS will
MUSIC = LIFE says:
whats the chance of getting a goat?
[R a H . R a H] says:
1/2
MUSIC = LIFE says:
wrong....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
1 of 3
MUSIC = LIFE says:
y?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
okay...
[R a H . R a H] says:
yes, why
MUSIC = LIFE says:
u already know... he's ALWAYS gonna reveal a goat
MUSIC = LIFE says:
correct?
[R a H . R a H] says:
yep
MUSIC = LIFE says:
ok...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
car, goat, goat
MUSIC = LIFE says:
1, 1 ,1.....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
goat revealed....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
1, x, 1....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
look at it now....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
u hav 1 in 3, of getting a goat
[R a H . R a H] says:
the x is the car right?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
no... its a goat
[R a H . R a H] says:
oh, is the 1 suppose to represent the probability or is it to represent an unknown?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yeah reps the probability
[R a H . R a H] says:
no no no no no no,,,,,, that's impossibile, they should all have a probability of 1/3 in that case
MUSIC = LIFE says:
wrong...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
1, 2 ,2..... 1 = car, 2 - goat
MUSIC = LIFE says:
so the prob is....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
2 of 3 is a goat
MUSIC = LIFE says:
so let start with that....
[R a H . R a H] says:
2/3 that i choose a goat IF monty does not reveal a goat, if monty reveals the goat, then it changes the probability!
MUSIC = LIFE says:
stop trying to work it out...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
my POINT is....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
from the very start... u hav a 2 of 3 chance of getting a goat...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
the next point is...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
monty ALWAYS opens a door with a goat.....
[R a H . R a H] says:
yes
MUSIC = LIFE says:
now....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
i'm
MUSIC = LIFE says:
NOT talking about doing the game only once... think 10 times
MUSIC = LIFE says:
ok....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
now.. if ur prob is 2 of 3 to get a goat....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
2 of 3 times... ur FIRST choice will be a GOAT...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
get it?
[R a H . R a H] says:
yeh
MUSIC = LIFE says:
so if u STAY... ur chance of getting a GOAT, stays at 2 of3
MUSIC = LIFE says:
but if u SWITCH, it REVERSES ur odds... making it... 2 of 3 to get the CAR
[R a H . R a H] says:
wait, has monty even revealed the door prior to this? or do we only assume that monty opens a door, but never really does?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
it wouldnt matter... bcoz not matter what... monty will ONLY open a door with a GOAT
MUSIC = LIFE says:
u hav to think latterally on this
MUSIC = LIFE says:
think about it...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
dont even think bout the car...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
think about the goats...
[R a H . R a H] says:
yeh but there's only 1 of the goat left to choose?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
OMG....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
r u thinking about 1 game or 10?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
YES theres only 1 goat to choose...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
but do u stay or switch?>??
MUSIC = LIFE says:
if u stay.... u hav a 2 of 3 chance of getting a goat
[R a H . R a H] says:
okay, if I CHOOSE 10, it will be 1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2 that i choose a goat
[R a H . R a H] says:
and the same if i choose a car
[R a H . R a H] says:
choose a car/goat ALL the time for ten times
MUSIC = LIFE says:
ur making ur own theory... i'm giving u the answer
MUSIC = LIFE says:
ur not reading it
[R a H . R a H] says:
you're giving me the answer, but your still not producing a coherant answer!
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yes i am...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
i REPEAT
MUSIC = LIFE says:
ur first choice....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
2 of 3 chance of getting a goat
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yes?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
if stay... ur chance remains at 2 of 3
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yes?
[R a H . R a H] says:
BUT HE REVEALS A GOAT ALREADY! how can i have 2/3 chance of choosing a goat after a goat is already revealed
MUSIC = LIFE says:
by STAYING u keep the odds 2 of 3
MUSIC = LIFE says:
bcoz it was ur FIRST choice and stuck with it
MUSIC = LIFE says:
it doesnt MATTER if he opens the door, its wether u STAY or switch
[R a H . R a H] says:
no if i choose, and then he reveals a goat, then i have an option of either choosing a goat or a car, but since he revealed a goat, that will change the probability of me choosing a goat/car
[R a H . R a H] says:
why doesn't it matter?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
bcoz... lets say u ONLY had 1 chance
MUSIC = LIFE says:
how would the oddds of getting a goat b
[R a H . R a H] says:
before or after a goat is revealed?
MUSIC = LIFE says:
b4
[R a H . R a H] says:
2/3
MUSIC = LIFE says:
yes
MUSIC = LIFE says:
ok...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
thats exactly the same as STAYING
MUSIC = LIFE says:
i know u hav a choice...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
stay or switch...
MUSIC = LIFE says:
now step back and think a bit....
MUSIC = LIFE says:
i'm gonna explain it one more time.. more detail
[R a H . R a H] says:
exactly, stay or switch, and after knowing that a goat is revealed. my chances of picking a goat or car is now 1/2
[R a H . R a H] says:
actually i have to go to uni tomorrow, so maybe we'll chat some other time
[R a H . R a H] says:
i really enjoyed chatting mate! lol
[R a H . R a H] says:
see ya
MUSIC = LIFE says:
sure
MUSIC = LIFE says:
see ya.. think about it
MUSIC = LIFE says:
research
MUSIC = LIFE says:
do some research and u'll realise
okay i gave up because i knew i couldn't convince him
SO WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK?
I was on my gf's account (rah rah)
[Updated on: Sun, 28 August 2005 15:05]
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| | Subject | Poster | Date |
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THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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xolent | Sun, 28 August 2005 14:47 |
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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ae86drift | Sun, 28 August 2005 15:06 |
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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trevtrev | Mon, 05 September 2005 03:14 |
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Re: THE STUPIDEST RIDDLE EVER!!
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CrUZsida | Mon, 05 September 2005 03:22 |
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